When Will We Welcome The Peak Of Coal Rush?

1. Electric coal continues to consume high inventories.

At present, the downstream power plants are in a state of high inventory and low daily consumption, and the number of days of coal storage in the power plant is as high as 22 days. While the imported coal continues to land in the domestic market in a large amount, the downstream users can still support the coal deposit; and the power plant will carry out routine maintenance on some of the thermal power units under its jurisdiction, and the daily consumption of the power plant will decline. Therefore, the market coal will continue to be under pressure. In addition, the number of ports around the Bohai Sea increased and the loading capacity increased. Even if it was affected by the overhaul of the Daqin Line, the traffic volume of Qin Port decreased. However, the supporting ports of the Huanghuang and Mengyu lines were not affected, and the transportation remained normal, which still could meet the demand for downstream coal.

2. The coal market demand has gradually improved.

Cement and other industries have higher profits, can withstand high coal prices, and can also drive the demand in the coal market to be better; according to time calculations, the recovery of cement and other industries needs to wait until mid-October. At present, on the eve of the National Day, some production enterprises in the north of the Yellow River have restricted production and emission reduction, which has affected coal consumption and power consumption. In addition, the southern hydropower is normal, the fire and voltage are not strong, and the enthusiasm for pulling is not high. In October, the arrival of dry season, coupled with the resumption of production in cement and other industries, coal rush is coming.

3. Coal prices will rise in October.

In October, a series of good news will be ushered in, including: winter storage replenishment, cement industry resumption of production, strict control of imported coal; plus the Daqin line inspection and maintenance into the second half, Qingang coal resources decreased. It is expected that in the middle of October, coal prices in the port market will usher in a retaliatory rebound, with a rebound rate of 10-15 yuan/ton. The coal rushing will be carried out in mid-October after the completion of the Daqin line inspection. At that time, the coal-pulling vessels arriving in Hong Kong will be concentrated in Hong Kong, and the coal market will reappear for three highs.